In the jitters with the increasing positions of rivals Turkey and Russia in the region, Libya’s peace agreement
Diplomats from 15 countries are supposed to support the truce in Libya, but the resolve is diminishing as foreign forces, including rivals Russia and Turkey, continue to be actively active in the region, which can hinder and derail attempts to establish an transitional government in Libya to unify the country.
The conflict in Libya is not only a longstanding fight for power in the region, but also part of a geopolitical dispute. Turkey’s divisive foreign policy, stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to Azerbaijan, plays an assertive role in this broader conflict, and this is rising exponentially, as is evident in recent tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Turkey plays a key role.
Just before the diplomats’ conference, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan planned his support for the removal of Turkish troops from Libya, a military and political promise offered to the National Accord (GNA) government based in Tripoli. At the same time, rival Russia transferred mercenaries into the Wagner party, assisting rival powers in eastern Libya, thereby reinforcing its military.
In Istanbul on Sunday, during a meeting between the GNA and the Turkish government, Erdogan assured Libya of expanding its investment. An agreement for oil exploration rights was signed last November with GNA, which had explicitly cut the drilling rights enjoyed by Cyprus and Greece in the eastern Mediterranean region.
Germany has successfully collaborated between Greece and Turkey, which in the region are cross-linked. To date, Berlin, which co-hosts the Libya conference with the United Nations, has been able to avert EU sanctions against Turkey, a penalty on the cards for sending naval exploration vessels into Cyprus and Greek waters.
As a negotiating point during talks with the EU, Erdogan will use his contract with GNA. The weakness of GNA in the military field is also beneficial in Turkey. Tripoli is in militia warfare with the sacking of several senior government leaders. In the western part of the world, which is dominated by GNA, but is expected as an anti-corruption campaign, the mechanism is assumed to be triggered by power battle.
Similarly, groups are seeking to obtain support from foreign supporters such as Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt in eastern Libya, which is dominated by GNA opposition forces.
Most of the disputes in Libya are over the equal allocation of oil revenues in the region. Most of the oil fields in eastern Libya are sent to the Libyan National Oil Corporation and dispersed through the central bank throughout the region. Haftar used militias to monitor the region’s oilfields.
In Libya, domestic tensions and the intervention of foreign forces with conflicting interests are capable of halting the peace agreement.